By 2100, over a quarter of the world or nearly 2.37 billion will be aged 65 years and above.
WORLD POPULATION GRAPH SINCE 0 AD DRIVERS
For this last factor, independent drivers including contraceptive access and higher educational attainment were also considered.Ī shifting age structure is also a key aspect of this transition. Various demographic factors are behind these differences-higher life expectancies, migration rates, and lower fertility rates. Following this trajectory, there could be 8.8 billion people in 2100, approximately 2 billion fewer than previously thought. It projects the population to actually peak at 9.7 billion in 2064. In contrast, IHME paints a different picture. IHME Population EstimatesĪccording to the UN, the world population is set to steadily rise over the years: Here’s a closer look at these complex projections. Plenty of signs have pointed to there being a population plateau, but recent research from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), published in The Lancet, suggests that the number of people on this planet may actually start to shrink well before the year 2100. These regular projections from the UN have been the status quo-until now. Last year, the UN revised these estimates, but the numbers it came up with were still well above 10 billion. In 2015, the United Nations predicted that the global population could surpass 11 billion by the end of the century.
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